QCP: Liquidity tightens during Christmas week, crypto market remains range-bound.

According to Mars Finance, on December 23, QCP released its daily market observation, stating that liquidity in the crypto market has weakened significantly as the Christmas holidays approach. Despite gold prices hitting record highs, Bitcoin remains range-bound. Data shows that open interest in BTC perpetual contracts on major exchanges decreased by approximately $3 billion overnight, while open interest in ETH perpetual contracts decreased by approximately $2 billion, indicating that the market is actively deleveraging rather than re-adding to positions. This liquidity contraction means the risk of a two-way squeeze during the holidays remains high. Historically, Bitcoin typically experiences 5%–7% price volatility during Christmas week, largely due to the concentrated expiration of year-end options. This Friday will see a large number of expirations, with approximately 300,000 BTC option contracts (worth about $23.7 billion) and 446,000 IBIT options expiring. On Deribit, over 50% of open interest expires on Boxing Day, with the main strike prices around $100,000 and $85,000, and the biggest resistance level around $95,000. Recent data shows a decrease in open interest for $85,000 put options, while open interest for $100,000 call options remains relatively stable, reflecting limited optimism in the market regarding the "Christmas rally." Meanwhile, risk reversal indicators suggest market sentiment has eased somewhat compared to the previous 30 days, but remains slightly bearish overall. Analysts believe that in addition to options fund flows, year-end tax-related stop-loss operations may amplify short-term volatility in a low-liquidity environment. However, historically, holiday rallies tend to revert to the mean after liquidity returns in January. In the absence of a clear directional breakout, the crypto market may continue its oscillating pattern in the short term.