4E: Bitcoin erased its year-to-date gains; soaring correlations and capital outflows combined to suppress the market.

According to Mars Finance, amid a deepening crypto bear market and cooling risk appetite, Bitcoin's gains since the end of last year have been completely wiped out. Early Monday morning, BTC fell below $93,600, touching below its opening price at the beginning of the year. Bitwise CIO Matthew Hougan pointed out that major buyers—including ETF allocators and institutional debt allocators—have been continuously withdrawing over the past month, causing the outflow of funds that previously supported BTC's record highs to become apparent. In 41 days, the total market capitalization of the crypto market evaporated by $1.1 trillion. While the current liquidation volume is about 10% lower than the peak on October 10th, risk sentiment remains fragile. Meanwhile, the correlation between Bitcoin and US tech stocks has risen rapidly. Data from the Kobeissi Letter shows that the 30-day correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 rose to 0.80, a new high since 2022, and the five-year correlation reached 0.54. Bitcoin is behaving more like a "high-beta tech stock" than an independent macro hedge asset. While sentiment is under pressure, external structural changes also warrant attention. Global ETF issuance reached 137 new funds in October, including 15 new cryptocurrency ETFs, more than double the number in September. The total number of global ETFs issued this year has reached 918, and is expected to exceed 1100 for the whole year, setting a new record. Regarding market views, BitMine Chairman Tom Lee emphasized that although BTC has experienced several deep drops, it is still in a supercycle of the past decade, and he believes Ethereum is entering a similar path. Arete Capital Partner McKenna pointed out that BTC may face a short-term downside risk of up to 31%, with key support levels at $96,200, $93,300, and $86,000–$91,000. He predicts that it may be difficult to reach a new high by 2025, but driven by institutional buying and ETF funds, BTC is expected to break through $200,000 before the end of Trump's term. 4E reminds investors that the market is currently under triple pressure from macroeconomic risk aversion, capital outflows, and increased correlation with technology stocks. The medium- to long-term logic for BTC remains unchanged, but short-term volatility may continue to increase. Attention should be paid to fund flows, changes in correlations, and the stability of key support zones.