Macquarie sees U.S. Senate near crypto deal as market structure, GENIUS rules advance

• Macquarie said bipartisan Senate talks are gaining momentum as Democrats weigh a Republican market-structure proposal.
• A Senate Agriculture draft giving the CFTC more authority over digital commodities is moving in parallel, with the two tracks expected to be reconciled in 2026.
• The bank sees U.S. regulators finalizing GENIUS Act and stablecoin rules on a similar timeline, potentially putting a comprehensive federal crypto framework in place by early 2026.

Macquarie (MQG) expects the U.S. Senate’s crypto push to accelerate, as recent closed-door talks among Democrats and Republicans over a compromise market-structure bill mark a meaningful step toward bipartisan agreement, the investment bank said in a report last week.

The bank framed a Dec. 8 meeting of Democratic negotiators, including Senators Kirsten Gillibrand, Mark Warner and Ruben Gallego, and a separate meeting between Senators and Wall Street leaders such as Citigroup’s (C) Jane Fraser, Bank of America’s (BAC) Brian Moynihan and Wells Fargo’s (WFC) Charlie Scharf as evidence that lawmakers are moving closer to a deal that could shape the next phase of U.S. digital-asset legislation.

The Senate’s compromise push on a market structure bill is seen as a "material catalyst for the U.S. crypto ecosystem," wrote analysts, led by Paul Golding.

The bank noted that the Senate Agriculture Committee has already released a bipartisan draft that would give the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) additional authority over digital commodities, serving as a companion to the Senate Banking Committee’s Responsible Financial Innovation Act of 2025, which sketches the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) approach to digital or “ancillary assets."

The analysts expect a markup of the Agriculture Committee bill in early 2026, and that it will reconcile its bill with the Senate Banking Committee's.

In parallel, the analysts flagged that federal agencies are close to rolling out rules to implement the GENIUS Act.

The FDIC Acting Chair Travis Hill told the House Financial Services Committee on Dec. 2 that the agency plans to issue a proposal on stablecoin prudential standards in early 2026. Macquarie also highlighted comments from the National Credit Union Administration that it is making progress, and from Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman that the central bank is working with other regulators on a framework for banks to issue and transact in stablecoins.

The bank viewed a potential Senate Banking Committee compromise push on the market structure bill as a key catalyst for the U.S. crypto market, arguing it could finally settle SEC–CFTC turf battles and create a viable “investment-contract asset pathway" for token decentralization, opening the door to greater institutional participation under clearer oversight.

The bank cautioned that the bill still has to clear committee, be reconciled with Agriculture’s language and pass a closely divided Senate in a midterm election year, even as banks push for favorable stablecoin yield and custody treatment.

Even so, Macquarie assigns a solid chance that a Senate-modified market structure bill is passed and sent to conference by around end–first quarter to mid-2026, with a full crypto-law package potentially taking effect soon after.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which regulates thousands of banks in the U.S., issued its first proposal of a rule governing the application process for issuing stablecoins yesterday.

Read more: MiCA Will Make or Break Euro-Pegged Stablecoins by 2026: DECTA

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• Commodity Futures Trading Commission Acting Chairman Caroline Pham confirmed again that she's heading to crypto firm MoonPay when the Senate confirms her replacement and he's sworn in.
• President Donald Trump's CFTC chair nominee Mike Selig was set for a Senate vote Wednesday evening, according to that chamber's schedule.
• Selig, currently an SEC official, would arrive at the CFTC just as several of Pham's crypto initiatives have gone live.

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