Analysis: Bitcoin options with a notional value of approximately $23.8 billion will expire on December 26, potentially leading to a concentrated liqui...

According to ChainCatcher, on-chain data analyst Murphy stated that approximately $23.8 billion worth of Bitcoin options, covering quarterly options, annual options, and a large number of structured products, will expire on December 26. This means the BTC derivatives market will experience a "concentrated liquidation and repricing of risk exposure" at the end of the year. Prices may be structurally constrained before expiration, but uncertainty will actually increase after expiration.

Data shows a large accumulation of open interest (OI) at the two closest levels to the current BTC spot price: a Put at $85,000 with 14,674 BTC, and a Call at $100,000 with 18,116 BTC. In terms of scale, this is not retail investor activity, but rather large-scale long-term capital, most likely ETF hedging accounts, BTC treasury companies, large family offices, and other institutions holding substantial amounts of BTC spot assets over the long term.

The put option at a strike price of $85,000 represents a buy-side activity, reflecting a strong demand for hedging against downside risk at that price level. Similarly, the large number of call options at a strike price of $100,000 does not necessarily indicate a bullish market sentiment, but rather reflects long-term funds' willingness to relinquish upside potential above that price level in exchange for immediate, certain cash flow and overall risk control.

By buying the lower Put and selling the upper Call, the profit distribution of BTC is compressed into an acceptable range. Assuming that the OI (Option Indicator) is already highly established, this $85,000–$100,000 options corridor will have a structural impact on the BTC price before December 26th, characterized by "implicit upper resistance, passive lower buffer, and fluctuations in the middle range."