Bitcoin drops under $71,000, ETH, DOGE slide as war-week rally runs into resistance

• Bitcoin briefly surged to $74,000 before pulling back to around $71,000, with the move up largely retracing war-driven losses and then giving back about a third of that rebound.
• Technical analysts say the rally stalled at a cluster of resistance around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 50-day moving average, with evidence that a short squeeze rather than fresh bullish conviction powered the spike.
• While major cryptocurrencies are still up on the week, a deteriorating macro backdrop tied to the Iran war, surging oil and a stronger dollar raises doubts about the durability of the crypto rally, making $70,000 key support and $64,000 the next downside level to watch.

Bitcoin got to $74,000 and ran out of further buying pressure.

The largest cryptocurrency pulled back to $70,987 by mid-day East Asia time, down 2.2% over the past 24 hours after Thursday's surge carried it to its highest level since early February.

The rally from Saturday's war-driven low near $64,000 to Thursday's $74,000 peak amounted to roughly 15% in five days, but the retreat since has given back about a third of that move.

Chart watchers such as FxPro chief analyst Alex Kuptsikevich pointed to the rejection coincided with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and just below the 50-day moving average, two technical barriers that tend to attract sellers in bear market rallies.

Fibonacci retracement levels are derived from a mathematical sequence that traders use to identify where a bounce is likely to stall. The idea is that after a large move down, prices tend to retrace a predictable percentage of that drop before resuming the trend.

The 61.8% level is the most closely watched because it represents the point where a recovery has retraced roughly two-thirds of its losses, far enough to feel convincing but historically where bear market rallies tend to die.

The 50-day moving average, meanwhile, is simply the average closing price over the past 50 days. It acts as a moving line of resistance during downtrends because it represents the price at which the average recent buyer breaks even, giving them an incentive to sell rather than hold. Bitcoin hitting both at the same time makes $74,000 a technically crowded level.

Kuptsikevich noted that "the bulls still have to convince the community that the bear market is over," adding that the magnitude of the move was driven by a short squeeze from bears who "pulled their stops too close to the market price."

Bitunix analysts flagged a similar read on the microstructure. The push to $74,000 triggered concentrated short liquidations, while long leverage liquidation clusters sit around $70,000. Secondary liquidity pools are near $64,000. That creates a defined range for the next move, with the floor and ceiling both visible on the liquidation heat map.

The weekly numbers still look strong for majors. Bitcoin is up 5.4% over seven days. Ether gained 2.7% to $2,080. BNB added 3.1% to $648. Solana rose 2.1% to $88.39. The laggards were dogecoin, down 3.7% on the week, and XRP, essentially flat with a 0.2% decline.

The macro picture heading into the weekend is messy, however.

Asia's benchmark stock index has dropped 6.4% since the Iran war broke out, with MSCI's regional gauge heading for its worst week since March 2020. The dollar is on pace for its best week since November 2024. Oil is posting its biggest weekly surge since 2022. Those are not the conditions that typically sustain a crypto rally.

Friday brought some tentative relief. Asian equities erased early losses as the dollar weakened and crude prices dipped on reports that the U.S. was weighing options to address the energy cost spike.

But the war isn't over. The Senate failed to block Trump's continued military actions against Iran, leaving conflict costs and energy disruption as open variables. Defense Secretary Hegseth has said operations could last three to eight weeks. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively disrupted.

The $70,000 level that was resistance for a month is now the first test of support. Holding it would suggest the breakout is real. Losing it puts the $64,000 floor back in play.

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• Bitcoin is hovering just above $70,000 after failing to sustain a move to $74,000 earlier this week amid a broader selloff in risk assets.
• The escalating war with Iran pushed oil to $85, raising inflation concerns and prompting traders to price in the possibility of a European Central Bank interest-rate increase.
• Derivatives markets show rising open interest but weak institutional conviction, with short hedging increasing and options pricing a near-term volatility event.

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