Bitcoin’s U.S. demand signal turns negative for a record 40 days

• The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has stayed negative for 40 straight days, its longest sub-zero streak since 2023, signaling persistent weakness in U.S. demand.
• While bitcoin has rebounded about 15 percent from its Feb. 5 low and climbed back above $62,000, the U.S.-focused premium has not recovered, implying the recent buying came largely from outside American trading hours and venues.
• The premium has inched higher from about -0.22 percent to near -0.05 percent, but remains below the positive levels historically associated with sustained accumulation, as U.S. investors show rising skepticism reflected in record domestic Google searches for “bitcoin zero.”

The well-followed Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index briefly looked like it was recovering after the Feb. 5 crash. It wasn't.

The premium has now been negative for 40 consecutive days, according to Coinglass data, setting the longest streak of sub-zero readings since 2023. The current reading sits at -0.0467%, barely changed from two weeks ago, when a sharp narrowing from -0.22% suggested U.S. buyers had stepped in near the lows.

The index measures the price gap between bitcoin on Coinbase and the global market average. Coinbase is widely used as a proxy for U.S. institutional and dollar-denominated flows, so a persistent negative reading means American investors are consistently paying less than the rest of the world — either selling more aggressively or simply not showing up.

The previous record was roughly 30 days of continuous negative premium during the October 2025 drawdown. That streak broke when a sharp bounce brought U.S. buyers back into the market. This time, the bounce came, as bitcoin recovered as much as 15% from its Feb. 5 intraday low. But the premium never followed.

That divergence shows that while price recovered, the composition of demand didn't. Whatever buying drove bitcoin back above $62,000 came from outside U.S. hours, outside Coinbase's order books, or both.

The one constructive read is that the premium has been gradually less negative since early February, creeping from -0.22% back toward -0.05%. It's improving, just not fast enough to flip positive, a threshold that historically coincides with sustained accumulation phases rather than relief rallies.

Interestingly, Google searches for "bitcoin zero" in the U.S. hit record highs earlier this month, as CoinDesk reported, even as global search interest for the term remained flat.

Both signals point to American investors specifically losing conviction at a pace that hasn't shown up elsewhere.

• Citizens estimates prediction markets are now running above a $3 billion annual revenue rate, with a path to $10 billion by 2030.
• January volumes rose more than 40% from December, with February tracking at similar levels despite post-football season expectations for a slowdown.
• The bank said institutions are beginning to engage as data consumers and liquidity providers, laying groundwork for broader adoption.

Disclosure & Polices: CoinDesk is an award-winning media outlet that covers the cryptocurrency industry. Its journalists abide by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk has adopted a set of principles aimed at ensuring the integrity, editorial independence and freedom from bias of its publications. CoinDesk is part of Bullish (NYSE:BLSH), an institutionally focused global digital asset platform that provides market infrastructure and information services. Bullish owns and invests in digital asset businesses and digital assets and CoinDesk employees, including journalists, may receive Bullish equity-based compensation.