Breaking News: Conflict continues on the Thai-Cambodian border; less popular predictions cause slow market reaction.

According to Mars Finance, on December 9th, PolyBeats monitored unverified images circulating on Cambodian Telegram and Facebook yesterday showing Thai F-16 fighter jets launching airstrikes against Cambodian targets. Subsequently, the Thai military confirmed that it had taken "retaliatory strikes" after a border conflict resulted in the death of a Thai soldier. This news directly caused the probability of the prediction market "Will Thailand attack Cambodia before December 31st?" to surge by 28% in the two hours between 8 AM and 10 AM yesterday, after which the market settled "Yes". Due to the rapid escalation of the geopolitical conflict, Polymarket launched a betting market "Will Thailand attack Cambodia on December 9th?" an hour earlier. This market has daily settlement, but initial trading volume was extremely low. Shortly after the betting market was launched, new images and reports appeared online: The Bangkok Post reported on social media that the Royal Thai Army confirmed that an F-16 fighter jet had destroyed a casino used by Cambodia as a drone control station, and that the Air Force was currently targeting rocket bases that threatened Thai communities. Following this news, the percentage of options for December 9th surged from 37% to 62% within an hour. Due to low trading volume, the order book is still open.