This metric suggests bitcoin's late November plunge was the bottom and major upside lies ahead

• The short-term holder profit-to-loss ratio fell to 0.013 on Nov. 24, just days after bitcoin plunged to about the $80,000 level.
• That reading has historically aligned with major and local bitcoin market bottoms.
• The ratio has since recovered to around 0.5, indicating growing profitability among short-term holders.

As bitcoin BTC$91,801.93 tumbled in late November to nearly $80,000, the ratio between short-term holder supply in profit and short-term holder supply in loss fell to levels that have historically coincided with major or local bear market bottoms.

On Nov. 24, the ratio declined to 0.013. Each previous instance of the ratio reaching this level has marked either a local bottom or the definitive bear market low, including in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2022, according to Glassnode data.

Glassnode defines short-term holders as investors who have held bitcoin for less than 155 days. At the November trough, the seven-day moving average of short-term holder supply in profit fell to approximately 30,000 BTC. In contrast, short-term holder supply in loss surged to 2.45 million BTC, the highest level since the FTX collapse in November 2022, when bitcoin bottomed near $15,000.

Since the start of 2026, bitcoin has rallied to about $94,000, a jump of over 7%. Over this period, short-term holder supply in loss has declined to 1.9 million BTC, while short-term holder supply in profit has rebounded sharply to 850,000 BTC — a ratio of roughly 0.45.

Historically, when the ratio approaches 1, it tends to move above it and continue expanding beyond that. The price of bitcoin tends to enter a sustained upside phase at the same time. With the ratio currently sitting below 0.5%, the metric suggests there remains room for significant further expansion before reaching equilibrium.

As for tops, they've tended not to occur until the ratio rises toward 100.

• KuCoin recorded over $1.25 trillion in total trading volume in 2025, equivalent to an average of roughly $114 billion per month, marking its strongest year on record.
• This performance translated into an all-time high share of centralised exchange volume, as KuCoin’s activity expanded faster than aggregate CEX volumes, which slowed during periods of lower market volatility.
• Spot and derivatives volumes were evenly split, each exceeding $500 billion for the year, signalling broad-based usage rather than reliance on a single product line.
• Altcoins accounted for the majority of trading activity, reinforcing KuCoin’s role as a primary liquidity venue beyond BTC and ETH at a time when majors saw more muted turnover.
• Even as overall crypto volumes softened mid-year, KuCoin maintained elevated baseline activity, indicating structurally higher user engagement rather than short-lived volume spikes.

• Metaplanet’s multiple to net asset value (mNAV) rose to around 1.25, its highest level since before the October liquidation crisis.
• The move followed MSCI’s decision not to exclude digital asset treasury companies from its global indexes.
• Strategy (MSTR) rose around 5% in pre-market trading while price action across other bitcoin treasury companies remained relatively muted.

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