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Heartland vs. Rimland
At first glance, today’s strategic map seems familiar. A bloc of land-based powers, clustered around the center of Eurasia, is challenging a liberal, maritime order headed by an offshore superpower. China and Russia, reinforced by Iran and North Korea and ringed by autocracies from Belarus to Myanma
How to Survive the AI Shock
The dawning age of artificial intelligence holds great promise for the world economy and for the United States. Like so many other countries, the United States has endured decades of slow growth in labor productivity. Productivity, the amount of goods and services produced per worker, is the single
Why “China First” Will Fail
For nearly eight decades, the United States has served as the chief architect and guarantor of the international order. But today, under the banner of “America first,” Washington is abandoning responsibility for sustaining the system it built after World War II. As the United States retreats from gl
The Mirage of China’s Military Edge
If China were to seize control of Taiwan by force, it would be a disaster, not only for Taiwan but also for the United States. A nearly $1 trillion economy would leave the free-market system and be incorporated into China’s state-directed, mercantilist one. A vibrant democracy nurtured and defended
The Afghanistan Reckoning
Five years ago, the 20-year American war in Afghanistan came to an inglorious end. In April 2021, the United States had begun its final withdrawal, with the goal of pulling out the 2,500 U.S. troops that remained in the country by September. Within weeks of the first U.S. departures, the Taliban had
Losing the War of the Future
In its recent campaign against Iran, the United States dominated the skies using its traditional airpower. The U.S. military pounded Iranian targets, conducting over 13,000 strikes. That prowess and devastating firepower did not stop Iran from hitting back. Over the course of the 39-day conflict tha
The Next Russia Threat
The war in Ukraine, now in its fifth year, has reached another inflection point. Russian forces are visibly struggling on the battlefield as Kyiv’s strategy of making the war futile for Russia is working. But the future of European security does not hinge on the outcome of this war alone. Even if de
The Broken Nuclear Umbrella
For decades, American allies in Asia and Europe have relied on U.S. extended nuclear deterrence for their safety. They forswore acquiring their own nuclear weapons, agreeing instead to live under the protection of the United States’ nuclear umbrella. This arrangement worked during the Cold War becau
When Workers Lose to AI
Early last summer, buried deep in an obscure budget document, the Trump administration effectively pronounced dead the primary government program for workers who lose their jobs because of trade. The U.S. government had created Trade Adjustment Assistance, as the program is known, in 1962 under the
The Only Way to Save Europe
The European Union today faces a set of external challenges that threaten its very existence. In December 2025, Pentagon officials told European diplomats that the continent must assume leadership of NATO by 2027, suggesting that the transatlantic alliance may be coming to an end. Meanwhile, Washing
China Could Win Taiwan Without Fighting
The governments of the United States and China both assert that theirs is the most important bilateral relationship in the world. They also agree that the likeliest trigger for an armed conflict between them is Taiwan. In theory, then, it should come as a relief that U.S. President Donald Trump and
When a Cease-Fire Is Really a Stalemate
A stalemate is the least admired of diplomatic outcomes. It resolves nothing, satisfies no one, and is counted as a victory only by the weaker party, for whom survival is achievement enough. But this is the condition into which the war between Iran and the United States has settled and, after 107 da
The Quiet Rise of the Plastics Crisis
Plastic is, quite literally, everywhere. We see it scattered across roads and piled up in heaps in our cities and towns. It is in consumer products, vehicles, food packaging, clothing, cosmetics, and medical devices. It has been found in the Mariana Trench, on the flanks of Mount Everest, and in the
How France Falls to the Far Right
Next year, France could elect its first far-right leader since 1944. Campaigning for the elections, which are scheduled for next April, is already underway, and opinion poll after opinion poll shows that the Rassemblement National, also known as the RN or National Rally, has a commanding lead. The p
Iran Won the War but May Lose the Peace
When the United States and Israel launched their war on Iran in late February, the regime in Tehran was in an unprecedented position of weakness. It faced existential economic and environmental crises, diminished defensive capabilities, and internal turmoil and external scrutiny following a brutal J
China Is Pulling Up the Ladder Behind It
China is increasingly embracing the mantle that comes with being a global superpower. Its rise is forcing the rest of the world to assess its credentials as a potential hegemon and a provider of public goods. And in one significant area, its strength may be a real weakness. Many poorer countries fea
The Long Shadow of the Iran War
President Donald Trump’s announcement, on June 14, of the end of the war in Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz came as a relief to countries around the world. A negotiated settlement was in the United States’ interest, but its likely terms fall far short of what Washington hoped the war
The Coming Quantum National Security Crisis
Every two decades or so, a new technology upends national security. In the 1940s and 1950s, the atomic and hydrogen bombs established nuclear deterrence. In the 1970s and 1980s, microelectronics led to the creation of stealth and precision weapons and early digital networks. In the 1990s, the Intern
NATO’s Permanent Crisis
Every few months, a new round of obituaries for NATO arrives. Commentators declare the alliance finished, analysts speak of irreparable rifts, and foreign policy veterans reach for the language of unprecedented crisis. This week’s G-7 meetings, taking place under the shadow of new threats from Trump
The Middle East Power Paradox
Throughout the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, Washington has relished the display of its conventional military superiority. President Donald Trump’s administration has boasted of its quantitative achievements: before the April 8 cease-fire, the United States alone flew more than 10,000 air sorties, hit o
The False Promise of U.S.-China Stability
An uneasy quiescence has come to define U.S.-Chinese relations during U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term. Although both governments are calling it “constructive strategic stability,” U.S.-Chinese relations have been so tenuous and shallow, so lacking in ambition or any affirmative vision from
How to Beat an Autocrat
For years, Hungary has been a surprising front in the global battle between authoritarianism and democracy. It attracted outsize attention for a small, landlocked country because its longtime prime minister, Viktor Orban, provided a model of how a populist leader could transform a democracy into an
The Strange Defeat of Nuclear Deterrence
In June 2025, Ukraine’s security services staged an audacious strike inside Russia. They infiltrated the country and hid short-range attack drones in cargo trucks near a slew of Russian air bases as far away as the Amur region on the border with China. Most of these bases were home to Russian strate
China’s Edifice Complex
China is suffering from enormous waste. For decades, government officials have built grand, showy projects that prioritize size and appearance over practicality, cost-effectiveness, and sustainability. Projects such as sprawling but underused airports, oversized but empty exhibition centers, and fut
Silicon Valley’s Bad Bet on the Gulf
When President Donald Trump returned from a trip to the Gulf in May 2025, he trumpeted $2.2 trillion in bilateral deals the United States had signed with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. In addition to defense and economic partnerships, a significant share of those deals addressed