Bitcoin will be 'top performer' in 2026 after getting crushed this year, says VanEck

• Bitcoin has underperformed compared to gold and the Nasdaq 100 this year, but a VanEck manager predicts a strong comeback in 2026.
• David Schassler, the firm's head of multi-asset solutions, expects gold's surge to continue to $5,000 next year as fiscal "debasement" accelerates.
• Bitcoin will likely follow gold’s breakout, driven by returning liquidity and long-term demand for scarce assets.

Bitcoin BTC$87,834.98 has disappointed investors this year, trailing both gold and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 stock index, despite expectations that it would benefit from fiat currency devaluation.

But according to a VanEck manager, the largest crypto asset could be setting up for a major comeback next year.

"Bitcoin is lagging the Nasdaq 100 Index by roughly 50% year-to-date, and that dislocation is setting it up to be a top performer in 2026," said David Schassler, head of multi-asset solutions at VanEck, in the firm’s recently published 2026 outlook.

While this year’s weakness reflects a softer risk appetite and tight liquidity, the thesis for bitcoin remains intact, Schassler wrote. "As debasement [currency devaluation] ramps, liquidity returns, and BTC historically responds sharply," he added.

"We have been buying," he said.

Schassler's broader thesis centers on a powerful combination of monetary debasement, technological transformation and the rise of hard assets. The asset manager argues that funding future liabilities and political ambitions will increasingly rely on money printing, pushing investors toward scarce stores of value, such as gold and bitcoin.

He expects gold to surge next year to $5,000, extending its already impressive run a little more than 10% for current levels. "Gold is one of the strongest major assets this year, and we expect that momentum to carry it forward," he said. The yellow metal is up over 70% this year, currently trading around $4,492 per ounce.

At the same time, a quiet bull market in natural resources is underway, fueled by the infrastructure demands of artificial intelligence, energy transitions, robotics and re-industrialization. These "old-world assets," as Schassler put it, are building the foundation for the new world economy.

Read more: Gold, silver shine in debasement trade as bitcoin is left behind

2025 was defined by a stark divergence: structural progress collided with stagnant price action. Institutional milestones were reached and TVL increased across most major ecosystems, yet the majority of large-cap Layer-1 tokens finished the year with negative or flat returns.

This report analyzes the structural decoupling between network usage and token performance. We examine 10 major blockchain ecosystems, exploring protocol versus application revenues, key ecosystem narratives, mechanics driving institutional adoption, and the trends to watch as we head into 2026.

• FIL slipped 2% in early trading hours on Wednesday.
• Trading volume rose 7% above weekly average on moderate activity.
• Price consolidated within a $0.09 range after testing $1.35 resistance.

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