Gold knocks on a door that's been shut for 50 years as bitcoin tests a defining support
TL;DR
Gold is testing a key resistance level against U.S. money supply not seen since 2011, while bitcoin faces support near April lows. Both assets show diverging trends in 2025 with structural progress but stagnant prices.
Key Takeaways
- •Gold is challenging a major resistance zone against U.S. money supply that hasn't been decisively broken since the late 1970s.
- •Bitcoin is testing support near April's 'tariff tantrum' low, which also marks its prior cycle high from March 2024.
- •2025 saw structural progress in blockchain ecosystems but stagnant or negative returns for most major tokens.
- •Bitcoin has been trading in a tight range ($85,000-$90,000) due to dealer hedging tied to heavy options exposure.
- •Options mechanics suggest a potential resolution toward the higher end of bitcoin's current trading range.
What to know:
- Gold is challenging a resistance zone against the U.S. money supply that was last seen in 2011 and the early 1970s, and only broken decisively during the late 1970s surge.
- Against the same measure, bitcoin, known to some as digital gold, is testing support near the April "tariff tantrum" low that also marks prior cycle high from March 2024.
In this article
- Gold is challenging a resistance zone against the U.S. money supply that was last seen in 2011 and the early 1970s, and only broken decisively during the late 1970s surge.
- Against the same measure, bitcoin, known to some as digital gold, is testing support near the April "tariff tantrum" low that also marks prior cycle high from March 2024.
Gold is at a critical juncture when measured against U.S. money supply (M2SL), testing a level it last reached in 2011 and not surpassed since the 1970s, when the price more than tripled to a then-record $700 an ounce over the course of several years.
In contrast, bitcoin BTC$87,834.98, referred to by some supporters as digital gold, has dropped toward a support level, revisiting lows it last touched during the "tariff tantrum" in April.
Back in 2011, gold cost $1,800 an ounce. It's now around $4,500. When plotted against the money supply, which represents the total stock of dollars circulating in the U.S. economy, including cash, bank deposits and liquid savings, the price has reached a level that's historically acted as a major resistance zone.
To get there, the precious metal has surged 70% this year. This sharply contrasts with bitcoin, which is down roughly 10%. Still, bitcoin continues to make fresh highs relative to the U.S. money supply each cycle, and the current support level also marks the prior cycle high in March 2024.
2025 was defined by a stark divergence: structural progress collided with stagnant price action. Institutional milestones were reached and TVL increased across most major ecosystems, yet the majority of large-cap Layer-1 tokens finished the year with negative or flat returns.
This report analyzes the structural decoupling between network usage and token performance. We examine 10 major blockchain ecosystems, exploring protocol versus application revenues, key ecosystem narratives, mechanics driving institutional adoption, and the trends to watch as we head into 2026.
- FIL slipped 2% in early trading hours on Wednesday.
- Trading volume rose 7% above weekly average on moderate activity.
- Price consolidated within a $0.09 range after testing $1.35 resistance.
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