Trump: Venezuela got lucky, they're doing really well now
TL;DR
Trump claims Venezuela is 'doing really well' due to U.S. intervention and energy deals, but the economy faces severe debt, low oil production, and political instability, making recovery uncertain.
Trump: Venezuela got lucky, they're doing really well now
Trump’s Venezuela Policy and the Path to Economic Recovery
President Donald Trump has asserted that Venezuela “got lucky” and is now “doing really well,” citing U.S. military intervention and renewed engagement with American energy firms as catalysts for recovery [^NUMBER]. However, the reality remains complex, with Venezuela’s economy still grappling with severe challenges despite recent developments.
Following the U.S. capture of former President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026, the Trump administration has prioritized revitalizing Venezuela’s oil sector, a cornerstone of its economy. The country holds the world’s largest oil reserves, yet production has plummeted to less than 800,000 barrels per day—far below its 1998 peak of 3.5 million barrels per day—due to decades of mismanagement, sanctions, and political instability [^NUMBER]. While the administration has authorized new licenses for U.S. companies like Chevron and Shell to resume operations, experts caution that rebuilding infrastructure will require billions in investment and years of effort [^NUMBER].
Venezuela’s financial liabilities further complicate recovery. The country’s debt exceeds 200% of GDP, with $150 billion in foreign obligations, including defaulted bonds and unpaid claims from companies like ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips [^NUMBER]. Additionally, the International Monetary Fund estimates Venezuela’s 2025 GDP at $82.8 billion, yet the nation has paid only a fraction of its international arbitration awards [^NUMBER].
Trump has emphasized that U.S. energy companies will “fix the badly broken oil infrastructure” and “sell that oil to markets around the world” [^NUMBER]. However, industry leaders remain cautious. Chevron, the sole U.S. energy firm still operating in Venezuela, has not committed to new investments, citing legal and operational risks [^NUMBER]. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions persist, with China and Russia opposing U.S. intervention and continuing to support interim President Delcy Rodríguez [^NUMBER].
While the Trump administration frames its actions as a law enforcement effort to combat drug trafficking and stabilize Venezuela’s economy, critics argue that the military presence and sanctions have exacerbated humanitarian crises and disrupted global oil markets [^NUMBER]. The path to recovery hinges on resolving political divisions, attracting sustained foreign investment, and addressing Venezuela’s deep-seated economic challenges—a process that remains uncertain.
For investors, the situation underscores the high risks and long-term horizon associated with Venezuela’s energy sector. Any meaningful recovery will require not only capital but also a stable political environment and international cooperation—factors that remain in flux.
