Analysis: BTC's chip concentration is decreasing, and the chip structure provides effective support, making a rebound more likely than a false breakou...

[Analysis: BTC Concentration Declines, Support from Price Structure Effective, Higher Probability of Rebound than False Breakout Followed by Further Downward Movement] According to Mars Finance, on January 4th, on-chain data analyst Murphy stated, "On January 1st, 2026, the concentration of BTC within 5% of the spot price reached 14.9%, just one step away from the high-risk volatility zone. However, it decreased instead of increasing on January 2nd and 3rd, and has now dropped to 14.5%. Meanwhile, the price of BTC is slowly rising. Historical data shows that if the concentration changes from increasing to decreasing due to a rise in BTC price, then during the continuous decline, BTC will continue its upward price trend, and vice versa. Currently, URPD data shows that 822,000 BTC have accumulated at $87,000; the bulls and bears are severely divided at this point, and after intense competition, a direction is gradually emerging. When the turnover point begins to move to the right, it proves that the current URPD..." The highest volume bar above has proven effective as support. Therefore, my current assessment is that a trading range of $92,000 to $104,000 is reasonable. Technically, a daily candlestick closing above the downtrend line ($90,588) would signal the start of an expected rebound, and this condition has been met. While the risk of a false breakout cannot be ruled out, based on current data and indicators, I personally believe the probability of a genuine rebound is greater than the probability of a false breakout followed by further declines. Unless, during this process, BTC breaks below the effective support level of $87,000, falls back below the downtrend line, and the concentration of trading volume continues to increase, then we need to reassess the situation.