NBS: Early June live hog price down 1.0% MoM

Early June live hog prices declined by 1.0% month-over-month, reflecting a slight correction in a market that had seen strong gains in the preceding months. The average liveweight price for the National Direct Hog Report in June was $76.34 per hundredweight (cwt), up $8.33 from May but down from recent high of $83/cwt. Carcass weight prices averaged $101.34/cwt in June, representing an 11% increase.

The June farm-to-retail price spread for pork was the smallest since July 2023, signaling potential downward pressure on hog prices. Analysts anticipate a sharper decline in late summer as this adjustment plays out.

Meanwhile, U.S. hog slaughter over the past eight weeks has been down 2.7% year-over-year, with the June Hogs and Pigs report indicating slightly lower slaughter volumes. Despite this, pork production has only declined by 1% due to heavier slaughter weights. USDA forecasts 2025 U.S. pork production, up 0.9% from 2024.

Feed costs remain a key factor for hog producers. Corn prices in Omaha have hovered around $4.15 per bushel, with USDA projecting 2025-26 marketing year average. Soybean meal prices in Central Illinois have been near $260 per ton, below year-ago levels, though USDA expects marketing year average to rise.

Looking ahead, hog futures for the winter months are trading around $83/cwt, while the August 2026 contract is $13 lower than its August 2025 counterpart. Market participants will be watching USDA’s upcoming reports, including the Crop Progress and Agricultural Prices reports, for further insight into market trends.