Avila: Colombia forecasts 2026 average Brent price of $85.5/barrel

Colombian energy analyst Avila has issued a forecast for 2026, predicting an average Brent crude oil price of $85.5 per barrel. This projection contrasts with other major forecasts, such as J.P. Morgan Global Research, which anticipates an average of $60 per barrel for the same period, citing soft supply-demand fundamentals and expected production surpluses. Avila’s more bullish outlook may reflect differing assumptions about geopolitical stability, production cuts, or demand resilience.

The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) also presents a divergent view, forecasting an average Brent price of $95 per barrel for 2026, based on assumptions that Strait of Hormuz remains partially closed and global oil inventories remain at historically low levels. The EIA further projects a decline in Brent prices to an average of $79 per barrel in 2027 as supply disruptions ease and production resumes.

Avila’s forecast highlights the uncertainty in global oil markets, where geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and shifting trade flows continue to influence price dynamics. For instance, U.S. sanctions on Russian oil have redirected crude flows from India toward China, altering global trade patterns. Additionally, the potential for regime changes in oil-producing nations, as noted by J.P. Morgan, could introduce further volatility, with historical precedents showing oil prices spiking by an average of 76% following such events.

While Avila’s $85.5 per barrel forecast is higher than most current projections, it underscores the complexity of forecasting in a market shaped by both fundamental and geopolitical factors. Investors and market participants should closely monitor developments in key regions, including the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz, as well as evolving OPEC+ production strategies and global demand trends.